Five tankers hit in two weeks—and insurance costs have tripled.
Peeter Helme
December 12, 2025
Euromaidan Press
Ukraine’s naval drone campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet is inflicting damage that far exceeds the cost of the weapons used, according to Ukrainian defense analyst Kyrylo Danylchenko. A single Sea Baby drone costs approximately $240,000, Danylchenko wrote on Facebook—a figure consistent with estimates ranging from $200,000 to $300,000. The tanker named Dashan, a 276-meter vessel built in 2005, was struck on 10 December. It has a market value of $25 to $30 million, according to Danylchenko. The math is telling: several drones worth under $1 million disabled a ship worth thirty times more.
The campaign marks an inflection point: Ukraine is achieving through naval drones what three years of Western sanctions could not.
The financial damage extends far beyond the hull. War-risk insurance for Black Sea tankers has jumped from 0.25-0.3% of a ship’s value in early November to 0.5-0.75% now—increases of up to 250%, according to Marcus Baker, head of marine and cargo at broker Marsh, as reported by the Financial Times. For a tanker carrying $50-60 million in cargo, that translates to hundreds of thousands in additional costs per voyage.
Five ships in two weeks
Danylchenko provided a damage assessment of recent strikes. The Kairos ran aground off the coast of Bulgaria after losing control. The Dashan is immobilized. The Virat was towed to Türkiye for repairs. The Midvolga-2 is undergoing repairs in Sinop. The Mersin, struck off the coast of Senegal, some 4,000 kilometers from Ukraine, sustained damage that may be irreparable. Danylchenko claims no crew members have died and no oil has spilled.
These assertions cannot be independently verified, although no evidence has yet emerged to contradict them. However, what is documented is that Istanbul-based Besiktas Shipping announced it would halt all Russia-related voyages after the Mersin attack.
Where sanctions fail, drones bite
The drone campaign is succeeding where Western sanctions have largely failed. Despite the G7 price cap introduced in December 2022 and sanctions on over 600 tankers, Russian oil exports have remained largely stable, according to the investigative news outlet Follow the Money. “The price cap is, to all intents and purposes, dead,” Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv School of Economics, told the outlet. “Western sanctions don’t have the power they used to have,” added Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. “We’re seeing that with the shadow fleet.”
Craig Kennedy, an associate at Harvard’s Davis Center for Russian Studies, noted that as the shadow fleet faces more pressure, “the more expensive it becomes for Russia to move oil.”
Economic pressure, not physical blockade
Danylchenko emphasizes in his Facebook post that the goal cannot be to sink every tanker—an impossible task given the fleet’s estimated 1,000-plus vessels. Instead, Ukraine aims to drive up costs at every stage of Russia’s sanctions-evasion operation.
Danylchenko claims Russia has spent over $25 billion acquiring and leasing shadow fleet vessels, with annual operating costs exceeding $10 billion—figures that exceed some Western estimates of $10-14 billion in acquisition costs and could not be independently verified.
Yet, the compounding pressure is evident: emergency repairs in Turkish ports, insurers retreating, and shipping companies withdrawing from routes linked to Russia. Still, the shadow fleet remains vast—roughly 15% of global tanker capacity. “The moment you sanction a vessel, another one is then likely to join the shadow fleet,” Elisabeth Braw told Follow the Money. Ukraine’s campaign is imposing costs, not cutting the flow. Whether sustained pressure can meaningfully erode Russia’s war funding remains to be seen.
Peeter Helme studied history at the university and worked primarily as a journalist and communications specialist in his native Estonia, Peeter has lived in Ukraine since 2023 – first in Odesa, now in Lviv.