August 20, 2026
DIANE FRANCIS
On August 1 at 8 pm, an expensive Italian restaurant in Central Moscow was blown up, killing and wounding several people. The target was Russia’s air force leader, Colonel General Alexander Chaiko, who survived, but several colleagues and relatives didn’t. The explosion sent shockwaves through the country, heightening anxiety as the war expands rapidly into Russia. The brazen bombing was even discussed on social media by influential, pro-war Russian military commentators. They questioned why a top general was hosting a lavish birthday celebration featuring 6,000-ruble ($75) soups while ordinary soldiers subsist in trenches and die in droves on the front lines. This was simply the latest in a steady stream of high-profile bombings and disturbing news in Russia that contribute to the national angst: from videos of Ukraine’s destruction of Wildberries, an online giant, to Russia’s arrest warrant for tech billionaire Pavel Durov, accused of helping Ukraine, who posted online his defiant and obscene response.
Brainwashed and intimidated, Russians aren’t yet brain dead. This week, a major military music festival on Red Square was canceled due to fear about Ukrainian drones. Mass gatherings have been restricted due to fear of protests. That’s why it is little wonder that recent polls reveal that Russians are war-weary and worried. There’s even credible polling support for a ceasefire or negotiated peace deal. Putin understands this shift, which is why he just shut down the country’s only anti-war political party before the fall elections and has increased bombing attacks on Ukrainian civilians to get them to capitulate. But it’s not working, and Ukraine’s response has been to step up attacks to destroy infrastructure and energy facilities inside Russia.
Sources say record cash withdrawals are being made from Russian banking accounts, amid fear the government will have to come after savings to finance its war in Ukraine. Then, on August 15, Ukrainians struck deep inside Russia’s “psyche” by bombing the Progress Rocket and Space Center in Samara, a sacred symbol of Russian technology where scientists (many of whom were Ukrainian) and rockets put the first human, Yuri Gagarin, into space in 1961. Its facilities were a target because they make missiles and house Russia’s version of Starlink. It was a strategic bull’s-eye and another major blow to Moscow’s image of itself as a tech and military superpower.
Ukraine’s decision to take the war to Russia itself with bombing raids was inspired, and day by day Russia’s security, might, and stature publicly crumble. Adding to the humiliation is that high-profile victims are coming forward publicly to criticize the regime or describe the dreadful consequences of the war. For example, Pavel Durov is widely admired as Russia’s only self-made tech billionaire, and he, unlike most rich Russians who made their fortunes off crooked state privatization deals, founded Russia’s “Facebook,” VKontakte (VK), and its “Twitter,” Telegram. He now lives safely in Dubai. After the Kremlin charged him with facilitating terror and helping Ukraine, he issued a statement that said the arrest warrant was without merit and was
issued by Moscow only because it wanted to increase censorship on the Russian people by taking over control of his social media properties.
Another young Russian success story, billionaire Tatyana Kim (nee Balachuk), built the online site Wildberries and is Russia’s richest woman. She described the bombing of her warehouses by Ukraine as “terrorist attacks”, but complained about the lack of defenses and the toll these military attacks were taking on the country. She denied that her company’s warehouses hid weapons and ammunition for the government, then publicly rhymed off the cost: hundreds of millions of customers in ten countries were adversely affected, billions in financial losses, four million Russian small businesses who were her vendors filed for bankruptcy, 40,000 Wildberries employees were laid off, and consumers throughout the former Soviet Union cannot buy toilet paper, detergent, toothpaste, pet food, medicines, school supplies, or cheap clothing.
The businesswoman said she wasn’t sure her company could survive and admitted that, for the first time in her life, she has sought the help of a psychiatrist. “If you live in a country that is at war, it would be strange to expect that it wouldn’t get you at some point,” she said. She added that she was trying to take it as a lesson, “to learn to cope with situations where nothing depends on you, where you can’t do anything, and you just hang out in this uncertainty.”
Ukraine’s bombing of refineries, ports, and pipelines has wreaked industrial havoc, caused closures and layoffs, reduced export income, and created major supply shortages for motorists and military officials alike. Concern about social disorders resulting from fuel shortages has reportedly led to the deployment of paramilitary forces in some areas of the country. Added to this are the problems created by the Kremlin’s mobile internet blackouts and controls, which now include Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the country’s Slavic and political elite reside. The Kremlin defends these as essential measures to block Ukrainian drone navigation, but the curbs severely impact daily civilian life, small businesses, and digital payments and banks. Thus, Russia’s worrisome run on its banks.
The situation is so dire that Andrei Klepach, Chief Economist with one of Russia’s key state banks, publicly stated in a speech at a conference that Russia cannot win a “war of attrition” against Ukraine with its huge Western support. “We’re losing both the technological and economic competition globally. And, as I’ve already said, we’re losing not only to China and the US, but in some ways, we’re losing to Ukraine. Ukraine’s economy, of course, is partially destroyed; it’s a demographic disaster. But, once again, the Ukrainian economy, despite everything, is surviving. Of course, there’s enormous financial assistance there … With this assistance for military spending and their own expenses, it’s roughly [equivalent to] 50% of our budget,” Klepach said. “I believe Russia will not fall apart, but I am almost certain that we will arrive at a social crisis.”
After the speech was widely disseminated, he was fired. Then Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski delivered a bombshell that Russia had sold 44 million metric tonnes of gold since January 2026, worth $6.2 billion and equivalent to half of its total gold reserves. The sale — the first in 25 years — was needed to cover Moscow’s debts and war costs, and he concluded
“this means that Russia is running out of resources. This winter could be Putin’s last hope to break Ukraine. And it is in our interest that Ukraine not only withstands but also wins this war.”
The single most telling “poll” against Putin’s war is that military recruitment is becoming impossible. It’s little wonder, given the horrendous casualties. As of mid-August 2026, roughly 1.47 million Russians have been killed, wounded, or are missing since the invasion in 2022. And Ukraine’s kill rate at the front has drastically improved, eliminated Russia’s manpower advantage, and exceeds the rate of recruitment. Every day, between 1,000 and 1,200 Russian soldiers are killed or wounded, or 30,000 monthly. Russia cannot replace them even though it offers enormous signing bonuses, death benefits, get-out-of-jail-free passes to criminals, and strong-armed tactics in impoverished regions. Russian men flee or hide, and poor countries in Africa and Central Asia now warn their young men against signing up.
Currently, the war is frozen at the front line and is concentrated on aerial bombing exchanges. Washington hopes that both sides will agree to an aerial ceasefire, but between April and August in 2026, Russia caused more destruction and killed more people than ever with its campaign of ballistic missile onslaughts on Ukrainian civilians. In response, Ukraine’s wave of long-range strikes has inflicted more damage to Russia’s economy than ever. This means that to survive the next few months, Ukraine must destroy Russian launch sites and weapons operations and bolster its own air defenses. Then, hopefully by year-end, Ukraine will have ballistic missiles and have reoccupied Crimea. That is when twilight ends for Putin, and the sun will finally set on his hideous war.