The Frontline, RKSL
July 15, 2025
Donald Trump’s latest scheme, which allows NATO to purchase American weapons for Ukraine while the United States steps back, has led some observers to argue that support for Ukraine remains intact. Some have even suggested it could become a sustainable model for transatlantic cooperation. The choreography was calculated and it was announced beside NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and wrapped in the language of shared responsibility. But we have to look at it honestly. Just because something is dressed up, does not make it credible. And to my ever hopeful friends who are eager to embrace this scheme, I remind them of the adage, if wishes were horses, poor men would ride. Wishing something to be true does not make it so. We should not be willfully suckered by stagecraft, and we should not be cheerleading illusions. When the survival of a democracy is on the line, pretending that US withdrawal is strategy does real damage. Ukraine is not fighting for survival in theory. This is a war with real consequences, and policy must be judged by its effects, not its packaging.
Much of the media has compounded the problem. Instead of naming this scheme for what it is, major outlets have treated it as a big pivot for Trump. Some have gone so far as to describe it as Trump “getting tough” on Putin. That is a complete misreading of the facts. It is a distortion of the power structure and a fundamental misrepresentation of the shift taking place. This is a deliberate and coordinated retreat, obscured by performance and spun into something it is not. The press is not supposed to cheerlead illusions. When it does, it becomes part of the danger.
Russia’s relentless and criminal targeting of Ukrainian families in recent weeks has made the ongoing genocide impossible to ignore. Trump had no choice but to respond. He now claims to be unhappy with Vladimir Putin. He performed his usual display of toughness, speaking as if the issue were personal rather than strategic. But if this disapproval is anything more than theater, then why did he halt direct American weapons transfers to Ukraine? And why is he now promoting a scheme in which NATO, not the United States, will purchase American-made weapons and deliver them to the front?
He introduced this scheme during a meeting at the White House with Secretary General Rutte, presenting it as a new form of alliance coordination. In reality, it is the deliberate unraveling of American leadership. Trump is reducing the United States from its position as leader of the free world into nothing more than an arms dealer. Rather than standing with allies and directing the defense of democracy, Washington now offers weapons for sale while others bear the risk and responsibility.
Trump made that clear in his own words. “Just so you know,” he said, “Europe is paying for everything. We’re not paying anymore. We have an ocean separating us.” That is not burden sharing. That is abandonment. It is the language of retreat dressed up as realism. And it reveals exactly how this scheme is meant to function: the United States will step back, provide arms for purchase, and disclaim responsibility for the outcome.
This shift arrives at a critical moment in Russia’s war planning, and it delivers a measurable strategic benefit to the Kremlin. Russia’s economy is deteriorating under the weight of its own war. Russian war spending has surged past forty percent of the national budget. The National Wealth Fund is being depleted. Oil and gas revenues are in decline. Industrial output is weakening. Russia’s sovereign credit rating remains constrained, and the ruble has lost over twenty-five percent of its value since 2022.
In June, Russian Economic Development Minister Maksim Reshetnikov admitted that Russia is on the verge of entering a recession. Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister, was even more direct. He said, “The federal budget is bleeding. Even at high oil prices, the state cannot cover its spending without printing money.” If this is the public position of Kremlin insiders, I suspect the economic reality is much worse.
And that structural reality is what is shaping Russia’s strategy this summer. Moscow is racing to achieve military objectives before economic constraints begin to limit its options and before international focus drifts away. Experts have suggested that russia has til the end of the summer to “win” the war against Ukraine before its economy collapses.
Trump’s 50 day delay gives Russia exactly what it needs.
The weapons that Trump halted were already budgeted and drawn from U.S. stockpiles. Patriots. HIMARS launchers. NASAMS interceptors. Artillery shells. These are systems capable of turning the tide in Ukraine’s favor. Their absence creates real, measurable gaps in defensive capability.
Rather than delivering them, Trump froze the transfers. There are claims that they are unfrozen. But I’m with Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s Former Foreign Minister, on this one. He stated in response to Trump’s announcement: “We must focus our attention on deliveries, not announcements. I will believe the West is sending weapons to Ukraine when I read that Ukraine is sending those weapons towards Russia.”
Trump then unveiled a scheme in which NATO countries would purchase the same systems from the United States and decide how to distribute them. That removes both speed and clarity from support. NATO does not manage U.S. stockpiles. It does not control production or delivery timelines. This structure is designed to slow everything down.
Trump and his allies are deliberately delaying everything. Because of his “big weapons announcement” the Trump-aligned bloc in the U.S. Senate quietly scuttled a bipartisan sanctions bill that would have imposed mandatory penalties on Russia’s oil exports, banks, and defense-industrial imports. The legislation enjoyed broad bipartisan support, but Senate Republicans delayed it awaiting signals from the White House. Senate Majority Leader John Thune made it clear after Trump’s announcement: “It sounds like right now the president is going to attempt to do some of this on his own. If at some point the president concludes that it makes sense and adds value and leverage that he needs in those negotiations to move the bill, then we’ll do it. We’ll be ready to go.”
Congress is standing by while the president maneuvers for leverage, even as the window for meaningful action closes. Tariffs are being pitched as leverage, but the practical effect is paralysis. And that paralysis favors the Kremlin. In fact Russia see it precisely that way. Trump’s announcement made the Russian stock market go up not down.
Bottom line: Trump has not announced that he is ending U.S. support for Ukraine. He has done something more politically effective. He has obscured that truth just as he’s obscured many other truths. He has handed responsibility to NATO, knowing full well that NATO lacks the operational tools to replace direct American involvement and is setting the stage to deflect the responsibility for Russia’s slaughter of Ukrainians onto our NATO allies. As for America itself, he’s degraded US world leadership and turned America into a big box storefront.
He presented this change as cooperation. He dressed it in formality and framed it as innovation. He wrapped it in ribbons and bows and shiny paper. But the truth is very simple: the United States has retreated. And it has done so at the moment Ukraine and in fact the rest of the world, can least afford it