As Moldovans head to the polls on Sunday, Moscow is primed to unleash a cocktail of street protests, false flags, and reflexive control to topple President Sandu.
MICHAEL BOCIURKIW
Sept 26, 2025
Russia is laying the groundwork to destabilize Moldova after Sunday’s parliamentary elections — with intelligence pointing to Kremlin-trained operatives preparing to ignite protests that could turn violent, the Institute for the Study of War reports. At stake: the future of pro-Western President Maia Sandu and her Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which risks losing its parliamentary majority as undecided voters and the diaspora weigh in.
Moscow’s playbook looks familiar — a manufactured, mirror-image of Ukraine’s 2014 Euro Maidan, but flipped to oust a pro-European leader. Moldovan prosecutors warn that young recruits have been trained in Serbia and at home to stage provocations, while Kremlin-linked oligarch Ilan Shor is accused of financing operations. Payments to protestors and coordination via encrypted Telegram channels point to a sophisticated operation.
Adding fuel, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) is flooding Moldovan media with disinformation — spinning wild claims that NATO plans that “Brussels Eurobureaucrats” are ready to deploy troops and occupy Moldova. The SVR claimed that NATO forces are concentrating near the Moldovan border and that NATO is preparing a “landing” from Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, in order to intimidate Transnistria (the Russian-occupied parastate in eastern Moldova).
This narrative seeks to prime Moldovans for street action, regardless of who wins. Documents leaked to Bloomberg show Russian plans to recruit sports clubs and criminal networks to stoke unrest. Bloomberg reported that two European officials stated that it was “almost certain” that Russia intended to follow through with most of the plans outlined in the documents.
Meanwhile, Sandu’s opponents — Igor Dodon and Shor — amplify Moscow’s talking points about “fraud” and “dictatorship.”
Analysts say the Kremlin is refining its interference tactics — layering disinformation, false-flag scenarios in Transnistria, and reflexive control to pressure Moldovans into demanding Sandu’s removal. With NATO exercises already scheduled nearby, Moscow will almost certainly twist routine troop movements into “evidence” of a Western plot.
The warning is stark: Russia may fail, but its attempt to light the fuse in Moldova underscores a wider strategy — projecting influence beyond Ukraine and reasserting control over its Soviet-era backyard.
Serbian police arrested two persons suspected of organising training in Serbia for Moldovan and Romanian citizens in “providing more effective physical resistance to police officers in case of riots during election day in that country [Moldova], scheduled for September 28.” One of those arrested, L.P., is suspected of organising training in a hospitality establishment near the western Serbian town of Loznica, and another person, named S.S., allegedly helped him, the Ministry of Interior said on Friday. The training was reportedly organised from July 16 to September 12 for 150 to 170 Moldovan and Romanian citizens. Those arrested are suspected of the criminal act of organising participation in an armed conflict in a foreign country. During their search, police confiscated laptops, mobile phones and devices for the detection and monitoring of radio frequencies.
Moldova’s electoral commission barred a pro-Russian party from participating in parliamentary elections on Friday, a vote beleaguered by widespread claims of Russian interference. The Heart of Moldova party is one of four parties in the Russia-friendly Patriotic Electoral Bloc (BEP), which is viewed as one of the main opponents of the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS). The Central Electoral Commission’s decision was based on a ruling a day earlier by the Chișinău Court of Appeal, which restricted the party’s activities for 12 months. The justice ministry requested the restrictions following searches earlier this month on Heart of Moldova party members that led to allegations of voter bribery, illegal party financing and money laundering. The electoral commission said in a statement that all names proposed by Heart of Moldova will be removed from the bloc’s list of candidates and gave the bloc 24 hours to adjust its list to meet the representation thresholds required by electoral law. The PAS party has held a strong parliamentary majority since 2021, but risks losing it in the upcoming race, in which it faces several Russia-friendly opponents but no viable pro-European partners. The BEP says it wants “friendship with Russia,” permanent neutrality and a “state that serves the people, not officials.”