Orest Deychakiwsky
July 31, 2026
VILNI Media
Ukraine has finally gotten tougher with Belarusian dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka. In June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told him in no uncertain terms to take offline four relay stations near the Ukrainian border that were helping steer Russian missiles toward Ukrainian targets. He threatened to take them out if Mr. Lukashenka did not comply. The autocrat backed off. As much as he has been an enabler of Russia – indeed, Minsk has been Moscow’s closest ally – the last thing Mr. Lukashenka wants is to be fully dragged into the war. Despite pressure from Russian President Vladimir Putin for Belarus to enter the war, Mr. Lukashenka knows that, if he did, it could very well be his political demise.
Mr. Lukashenka has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for more than three decades, robbing the Belarusian people of their freedom. After legitimately winning the presidency in 1994, he seized the reins of power, dismantling the democratically elected parliament, violating civil and political rights, and suppressing civil society and the democratic opposition. Perhaps the starkest expression of the turn toward despotism came during the 1999-2000 “disappearances” (i.e. murders) of four prominent opponents by Mr. Lukashenka’s security forces.
Under Mr. Lukashenka’s misrule, not one election has been free or fair. Human rights abuses have been legion, with democracy profoundly absent. This lack of freedom, along with Belarus’ refusal to engage in meaningful market economy reforms has made it exceptionally difficult for the West (including, historically, the United States, and particularly the U.S. Congress) to have normal relations with the Belarusian regime. This lack of political and economic reforms has made the country more vulnerable to Russia, never more so than now.
Another reason for Belarus’ vulnerability to Russia is the country’s relatively weak sense of nationhood. Mr. Lukashenka has not encouraged his people to develop a sense of Belarusian identity and appreciation for their language, culture and history. For most of his rule, the ethnic Belarusian autocrat has marginalized Belarus’ distinct national identity and overseen its Russification, while displaying contempt for its language, suppressing national identity and symbols. Independent cultural figures who exhibit too much “Belarusian-ness” are censored and face various forms of persecution. Historical narratives that stress Belarus’ European, non-Russian roots are downplayed. During his years in power, the number of Belarusian language schools has plunged. The Belarusian language is discouraged and even looked upon with suspicion as it’s associated with the democratic opposition.
Under Mr. Lukashenka, Belarus has seen more than its share of suppressed protests and imprisoned pro-democracy politicians and activists, notably following the 2010 presidential “elections.” But nothing has approached the brutal crackdown stemming from the mass, months
long protests that took place after the presidential elections held six years ago in August 2020. The voting was blatantly rigged in favor of the dictator, even though it was clear that the real winner was Belarusian opposition candidate Svyatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
These unprecedented, massive protests shook Mr. Lukashenka to his core. Since then, and especially since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has tightened its control over the country, with Belarus serving as a staging ground for Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, hosting Russian military infrastructure and otherwise aiding and abetting Moscow’s war on Ukraine. This includes the holding of Ukrainian children abducted from areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia during the war.
Like most despots, Mr. Lukashenka has a longstanding fear of his own people, which was particularly evident after August 2020. Since then, hundreds of thousands of Belarusians have been repressed through various means. Thousands have been imprisoned, detained or tortured.
Many are still languishing in prison for opposing the dictatorship and the war. Belarus reportedly has the highest per capita number of known political prisoners in the world (some 860, according to the Belarusian human rights non-governmental organization Viasna) despite Washington having negotiated the release of more than 450 over the course of the last year. An estimated 600,000 Belarusians (7 percent of the population) have left the country since the crackdown, a disproportionate number of them younger and more educated.
A highly active Belarusian democratic opposition movement exists in exile, led by Ms. Tsikhanouskaya. Just as the Ukrainian government has become tougher on the Belarusian regime, it has somewhat belatedly embraced the exiled democratic opposition. Cooperating with them is both the principled and smart thing to do, as it is the pro-Western, pro-democracy forces that represent the future of Belarus, and not the decrepit, pro-Russian Lukashenka regime.
While taking a principled approach, Ukraine should also be balanced and pragmatic, looking for reasonable opportunities to distance Belarus from Russia even if it means limited engagement with the unsavory Mr. Lukashenka.
The Belarusian people are subjected to intense pro-Russian propaganda, with limited alternatives to outside information, thanks to the suppression of independent media and severe restrictions on social media, messaging apps and the internet.
Notwithstanding, the Belarusians overwhelmingly do not favor a war with Ukraine and have repeatedly rejected the idea of Belarusian military involvement. Many in Mr. Lukashenka’s own military and security services are reluctant to become more entangled. He knows this. For Mr. Lukashenka, self-preservation is paramount, so he will continue his maneuvering between Moscow, on the one side, and Kyiv and its Western backers on the other. Whether this balancing act will succeed remains to be seen. A cornered Russia could always resort to desperate measures such as outright annexation, although such a move would likely backfire.
Belarus and Ukraine have taken starkly different political paths since independence. Yet it must not be forgotten that the two nations are considerably closer to each other linguistically, culturally and historically than either is to Russia, or to any other country for that matter. Ukraine
and Belarus are natural allies. Ukraine’s existential fight for freedom – and its eventual victory – against Russian imperialism will have momentous ramifications for Belarus’ freedom and democratic future. And this, of course, will have incredibly positive implications for the security of Europe.
Orest Deychakiwsky is an American foreign policy expert who worked for over 35 years at the U.S. Helsinki Commission, focusing on Ukraine, Belarus, Bulgaria, and human rights in the USSR. He participated in numerous OSCE missions, helped draft U.S. congressional legislation, and has been widely published. He is currently a Senior Advisor at the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council, Board Member of The Ukrainian Catholic University Foundation (UCUF), The Washington Group and the Shevchenko Scientific Society (USA), and a regular contributor to Vilni Media and The Ukrainian Weekly.