Interview: “Ukraine has earned the right to advance on its European path”: Margus Tsahkna on Estonia’s support for Ukraine and European Security
Yurii Markevych
July 31, 2026
The Ukrainian Review
More than 30,000 Ukrainian refugees residing in Estonia under temporary protection are rapidly building new lives, with new UN data highlighting sharp increases in both employment and Estonian language proficiency.
As of July 12, 2026, more than 30,000 Ukrainian refugees in Estonia hold a valid temporary residence permit based on temporary protection. According to UNHCR data, employment among working-age refugees increased to 79% in 2025, up from 69% in 2024, while the share of those able to communicate in Estonian rose from 38% to 47%, respectively.
Margus Tsahkna, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia, in an interview with The Ukrainian Review, talked about Estonia’s support for Ukraine, cooperation between the two countries and the need to continue the pressure on Russia.
Ukrainians in Estonia
The Minister noted that Ukrainians are already making a meaningful and positive contribution to Estonia’s society and economy. Many have entered the workforce quickly, achieving a high employment rate and helping to ease labour shortages in sectors where additional talent was urgently needed. “Their commitment to integration is also visible: adults are actively learning Estonian, and most children are enrolled in Estonian schools, strengthening social cohesion and everyday interaction. But Estonia also opened Ukrainian schools to facilitate the smooth integration of Ukrainian children into Estonian schools and society, as well as their learning of the Estonian language.”
Culturally, he adds, Ukrainians have enriched Estonia’s public life. The Minister says that new Ukrainian restaurants have become local favourites, and Ukrainian music, theatre, and visual arts have found enthusiastic audiences. “Their presence has added diversity, creativity, and new perspectives to Estonia’s cultural landscape, deepening the ties between our two nations.”
EU-Russia Negotiations: Is Neutrality Really Necessary?
In recent months, Europe has increasingly reflected on potential negotiations between the EU and Russia, with media outlets floating the names of politicians who could serve as mediators between the two sides. However, while most European leaders argue that a mediator must be neutral, Margus Tsahkna cautions against this, stressing that this role should be fulfilled by someone who stands firmly on Ukraine’s side. Otherwise, this could lead to postponing the war and its recurrence in the future.
In addition, Tsahkna argues that future negotiations will define Ukraine’s and Europe’s security for decades. Therefore, he adds, both must enter them with strength, unity, and a clear strategy. “Russia has shown no sign of abandoning its imperialistic goals. Moscow will only shift course once victory becomes impossible. Europe must therefore intensify pressure on Russia and reinforce support for Ukraine to prevent Moscow from gaining at the negotiating table what it failed to win on the battlefield.”
Moreover, Tsahkna claims that before any dialogue, Europe must set its own objectives, red lines, and vision for the continent’s future security order.
Furthermore, he adds that a just and lasting peace requires agreement on key principles:
No recognition of illegal borders: Under no circumstances can Europe accept the recognition of borders changed through aggression. The territorial integrity of Ukraine must remain fully intact.
Full integration and guarantees: Ukraine must be firmly embedded in Europe’s political, economic, and security system, backed by credible security guarantees and rapid EU accession.
Justice and accountability: No peace agreement can legitimize violations of international law or obstruct accountability for the crime of aggression and war crimes. Durable peace cannot be built on impunity.
Long-term deterrence: Europe must recognize that Russia will remain a long-term strategic threat even after the war. The post-war security architecture must therefore include credible deterrence and containment measures capable of preventing future aggression.
Trust through actions: Any future normalization of relations with Russia can only occur if Moscow demonstrates a genuine willingness to respect agreements, comply with international law, and rebuild trust through actions rather than rhetoric.
“Europe must use every available lever to weaken Russia’s capacity for aggression”
For several years now, Estonia has been one of the European countries that has consistently supported tightening sanctions against Russia. However, Margus Tsahkna says that several sanctions tools remain significantly underutilized, and Europe must close these gaps if it wants to meaningfully constrain Russia’s war machine. “One such measure is visa restrictions for Russian citizens who have served in the armed forces. This is a straightforward step that would limit the movement of individuals directly involved in Russia’s aggression, which would reduce security risks across Europe.”
Another underused instrument, the Minister claims, is the systematic targeting of Russia’s shadow fleet through a maritime services ban. He notes that Russia’s covert tanker network continues to circumvent the oil price cap and generate substantial revenue for the Kremlin.
Accordingly, Tsahkna emphasizes, Europe should also move forward with banning aluminium oxide exports. “Aluminium is a critical input for Russia’s defence industry, aviation sector, and missile production. Cutting off this supply would directly weaken Russia’s military capabilities and raise the cost of sustaining its war effort.”
Therefore, the Minister adds, Europe must use every available lever to weaken Russia’s capacity for aggression. And half-measures or premature diplomatic outreach risk giving Moscow breathing room.
Closing Sanctions Loopholes
Nevertheless, Tsahkna notes that sanctions are working. And the current fuel shortages in Russia are proof of that. He adds that the Kremlin has reorganized its economy into a full war machine, and every delay in tightening sanctions means more missiles landing in Ukraine. Moreover, Tsahkna claims that as long as Russia can still access critical components through loopholes, sanctions will remain slower and less effective than intended. “Europe must treat sanctions enforcement as a security priority, targeting financial channels that remain insufficiently monitored and energy revenues that Russia continues to redirect into its war budget.”
Along with this, from his perspective, sanctions evasion remains an issue. Tsahkna observes that Russia has built an entire parallel import network. Closing it requires political courage, not just technical adjustments. “If a company or a country helps Russia bypass restrictions, knowingly or not, there must be consequences. Secondary sanctions and blacklisting could be of use here.”
At the same time, he notes, sanctions are working. They have drained hundreds of billions from Russia’s economy and weakened its war machine. “As a result, Russia today finds itself in one of its weakest military, economic, and political positions in recent years.”
“The EU must be prepared to match Ukraine’s determination with its own”
Margus Tsahkna notes that Ukraine has implemented substantial reforms under extraordinary wartime conditions, and this achievement deserves clear recognition. Moreover, he adds that the EU must acknowledge that Ukraine’s rightful place is in Europe. Enlargement is a strategic geopolitical instrument, and delaying it serves only Russia’s interests.
“A key challenge is maintaining cohesion among member states, as every negotiating cluster requires unanimous approval to open. Some governments still approach enlargement as a transactional process rather than a strategic investment. This hesitation must be overcome. Ukraine’s accession should be understood as an investment in Europe’s long-term security, stability, and resilience.”
Margus Tsahkna also emphasizes that from Estonia’s perspective, the EU must act with urgency and political courage.
Ukraine has earned the right to advance on its European path, and the Union must be prepared to match Ukraine’s determination with its own
Along with this, the Minister says that Estonia does not view Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as a political issue but as an existential one. He notes that if a sovereign state, Russia, is allowed to attack another sovereign state, Ukraine, disregarding the principles of the UN Charter and international law, and face no consequences, the very concepts of justice, freedom, and sovereignty lose meaning. “Such a precedent would directly endanger Estonia’s independence and destabilise the global order as we know it. This is something the whole society in Estonia understands, which is why our support for Ukraine has been steady, consistent, and unwavering.”
The perception of Russia and the essentiality of Ukraine’s victory
Tsahkna is convinced that the decision taken at the end of last year for EU member states to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan for 2026–2027* was a decisive breakthrough. But, he adds, Russia’s frozen assets still remain largely unused because member states still hold very different views on how they should be deployed.
*At the end of 2025, European Union leaders agreed on a new €90 billion financial support package for Ukraine for 2026–2027. The EU officially approved this package on April 23, 2026. The program provides for an allocation of €45 billion each year in 2026 and 2027. Out of the total amount, around €30 billion will be directed toward budget support for Ukraine, while another €60 billion is earmarked for military aid, particularly the development of the defence industry and weapons production. By late June, Ukraine had already received its first tranche of €3.2 billion, followed by an additional €3.9 billion, which will be used, among other things, for drone production.
“Estonia continues to be a strong advocate for using these assets to compensate for the immense damage Russia has caused in Ukraine.”
Moreover, the Minister says that the perception of Russia has certainly changed compared to 2008 and 2014. He declares that today, there is a much clearer understanding of the threat Russia poses. “Russia has demonstrated itself to be an aggressive and unreliable international actor. Our relations cannot normalise until Russia is held fully accountable for its violations of international law and for the destruction it has inflicted on Ukraine. Until then, isolation must persist.”
Furthermore, Tsahkna states that Ukraine’s victory is essential for Estonia and for the security of Europe. But that victory must be accompanied by fundamental change within Russia itself — a new paradigm. “Only a Russia that has truly reckoned with its actions and abandoned its imperial ambitions can ensure lasting security for Europe.”
“Narva is next” narrative
In the spring of 2026, Western media reported that the Estonian city of Narva, located on the border with Russia, could repeat the scenario of parts of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions and Crimea, which were occupied by Russia in 2014. But Margus Tsahkna asserts that the whole “Narva is next” narrative is a preposterous and baseless scenario. It plays directly into Russian propaganda in Western countries, which aims to sow confusion and division among Ukraine’s strongest supporters. He also declares that Estonia will not be intimidated by fear-mongering.
It is precisely this scenario of “hybrid” aggression — utilizing disinformation, local pro-Russian proxies, and subsequent military intervention — that is frequently cited as a potential risk for other border regions, notably Estonia’s Narva.
The impossibility of attacking a NATO member
The Minister adds that Estonia is a NATO member, and Russia cannot attack the Baltic states without provoking a war with the entire Alliance. And right now, he adds, Russia is fully preoccupied in Ukraine. Nevertheless, Tsahkna notes that if such a scenario ever emerged, Estonia would know about it well in advance; the plans are in place, the intelligence picture is clear, and NATO would respond collectively and decisively.
“Estonia has made substantial and measurable investments in national defence. We have increased defence spending to at least 5% of GDP, ensuring sustained support for long‑term security. Estonia maintains a large reserve force of roughly 45,000 personnel, forming the backbone of our national readiness. In addition, Estonia is significantly expanding its ammunition reserves. Together, these steps strengthen our resilience and ensure that our defence capabilities remain robust and future‑proof.”
Moreover, the Minister states that they have troops from three nuclear powers — the United States, the United Kingdom, and France — stationed in Estonia. Furthermore, German and Canadian forces stand strong in Lithuania and Latvia. “If needed, we will fight together. That is what collective defence means. Article 5* is a binding commitment. And Russia knows very well that NATO stands united, prepared, and determined to defend every inch of allied territory.”
*Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty enshrines NATO’s principle of collective defence: an attack against one member state of the Alliance is considered an attack against all, and allies commit to assisting it. The last and so far only time the article was invoked was following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.
Along with this, Tsahkna claims that as for hybrid threats and interference, Estonia has over 20 years of experience dealing with Russia’s influence operations and hybrid warfare. “We understand these tactics, we counter them daily, and we do not fall for narratives designed to weaken our resolve. On the other hand, Russia’s hybrid and influence tactics are not limited to our region; we’ve seen different attempts by Russia all over Europe, so we must enhance our common resilience.”
Estonia’s support for Ukraine
Estonia, Tsahkna notes, remains one of Ukraine’s most steadfast and unwavering supporters. According to him, they have provided continuous political, military, and humanitarian assistance, and their total support, delivered and planned for 2022–2027, now reaches 1.41 billion euros.
In 2024, the Minister adds, Estonia and Ukraine signed a landmark security assistance and long‑term support agreement*, underscoring that Estonia’s commitment to Ukraine is strategic and enduring. *In June 2024, Ukraine and Estonia signed a bilateral Agreement on Security Cooperation and Long-Term Support for ten years. The document formalized Estonia’s commitment to allocate at least 0.25% of its GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine between 2024 and 2027. It also provided for cooperation in the defence industry, military training, and cybersecurity, as well as support for Ukraine’s EU and NATO membership.
“To date, Estonia has contributed around 820 million euros in defence assistance, and we will continue allocating at least 0.25% of our GDP to Ukraine’s defence for as long as necessary. We have chosen to contribute to Ukraine’s digital and cyber defences specifically through the IT Coalition and the Tallinn Mechanism frameworks.” Margus Tsahkna asserts that it is a strategic decision rooted in Estonia’s own experience as a digital nation and a recognised cyber‑security leader. “By focusing our support on these domains, we help Ukraine strengthen the backbone of its defence system: the networks, platforms, and digital tools that enable command, control, and effective battlefield operations.”
Through these frameworks, the Minister states, Estonia provides technical expertise, cyber‑defence capabilities, and practical solutions that enhance Ukraine’s resilience against cyberattacks and strengthen its ability to operate in a contested digital environment.
Moreover, he claims that the drone cooperation agreement* signed in Ankara is a particularly promising step forward. *In July 2026, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Ukraine and Estonia signed a “Drone Deal” agreement. The document provides for deepening cooperation in drone technologies, joint production, the exchange of expertise, and the development of the defence industry, as well as collaboration in cybersecurity, IT, and military innovation. “It allows us to merge Ukraine’s hard‑earned wartime experience with the rapidly developing capabilities of Estonia’s defence industry, strengthening air‑defence solutions for both nations”.
Furthermore, Tsahkna claims that it also deepens bilateral cooperation in information technology and cyber security, and expands the exchange of wartime lessons — from training and doctrine to best practices and operational procedures. “Ukraine’s achievements in building a modern drone capability are invaluable for all European partners. We are actively identifying new opportunities to expand cooperation between Estonian companies and Ukraine’s defence sector.”
Yurii Markevych is a Journalist who specializes in the analysis of international politics, war, history and culture. Works directly with human stories, utilizing various forms of storytelling. In addition, works as a fixer.