Ukraine’s Plan B is to be able to protect itself if allied security guarantees prove worthless.
February 3, 2026
By Veronika Melkozerova
POLITICO
KYIV — Ukraine fears it can’t rely on security guarantees from its allies in any potential peace deal, and so must be ready to stand alone as a “steel porcupine” to ensure that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin won’t return for another attack.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last year exhorted Kyiv to turn the country “into a steel porcupine, indigestible for present and future aggressors.”
That means a permanent massive army, heavy investment in the latest drone and missile technology, and domestic arms production.
“Ukraine has undergone a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on,” Alyona Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO, told POLITICO. “Previously, the vision was primarily centered on protection commitments provided by partners. Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the core of any security guarantees must be Ukraine’s army and its defense industries.”
But for that to happen, Ukraine needs to create a sustainable defense sector, reform its procurement systems, revamp its recruitment, continue improving its drone technology, build up long-strike missiles, equip its forces with modern tanks, artillery and jets (Kyiv has sketched out a deal to acquire as many as 150 Swedish-produced Saab JAS-39E Gripen fighters), and get billions in aid to build a military Russia would fear attacking again.
Ukraine’s future security “is first and foremost about production resilience,” said Ihor Fedirko, CEO of the Ukrainian Council of the Defense Industry. “Not individual weapons systems and not one-off technological breakthroughs, but the ability of the defense industry to operate over time, under pressure, with predictable output.
Security guarantees are needed because U.S. President Donald Trump has ruled out Ukraine’s preferred option of being invited to join NATO, which protects its members with its Article 5 common defense provision.
“In addition to strong armed forces, Ukraine needs robust security guarantees,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in Kyiv on Tuesday.
But without NATO, Ukraine has to rely on bespoke agreements that may not carry as much weight as the alliance commitment. Kyiv is wary of such deals, having been burned by promises
made by the U.S. and the U.K. when Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in 1994 — pledges that turned out to be hollow.
“Some European allies have announced that they will deploy troops to Ukraine after a deal is reached. Troops on the ground, jets in the air, ships on the Black Sea. The United States will be the backstop,” Rutte said, adding that the security pledges were “solid.”
But Russia is already sending signals that it will oppose any security guarantees for Ukraine.
“We don’t know what guarantees were agreed, but apparently, those are guarantees for the Ukrainian regime which has pursued the Russophobic, neo-Nazi policy course,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told reporters last week.
The core of Ukraine’s worries concern the reliability of Trump’s promises, thanks to his abrupt policy shifts — from wanting to annex Greenland to questioning the value of NATO allies and forging warm ties with Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
“Would Trump go to war with Russia over Ukraine? Absolutely not. Would Trump sanction Russia for breaking any ceasefire? Very unlikely,” wrote Timothy Ash, an analyst who studies Russia and Ukraine.
With any security guarantees looking threadbare, Ukraine’s Plan B is to rely on itself.
“The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians become convinced that they must rely first and foremost on themselves,” said Getmanchuk. “This reflects both disappointment with earlier security commitments made to Ukraine and skepticism about the prospects of NATO membership, as well as growing confidence in Ukraine’s own ability to resist the enemy.”
Building defenses
A key element of a future deterrent force is a large army.
During peace talks, Ukraine has insisted on keeping a military of 800,000 soldiers.
With war ongoing, 2 million Ukrainians are currently wanted for avoiding the draft, while 200,000 soldiers have gone AWOL, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said last month. If a ceasefire does happen, many of the soldiers now serving will want to be demobilized.
That means an enormous and expensive effort to build up and maintain a large peacetime army, which will have to organized and properly paid. For that to happen, Ukraine needs to improve military training at all levels, as well as to transform its organizational and staff structure, said Taras Chmut, a Ukrainian military analyst and head of the Come Back Alive military volunteer fund.
Fedorov vowed that major digitalization and other reforms are coming. “Our goal is to transform the system: carry out military reform, improve frontline infrastructure, eradicate lies and corruption, and foster a new culture of leadership and trust, so that those who deliver real results are rewarded and given opportunities to grow.”
Kostyantyn Nemichev, deputy commander of the Kraken unmanned systems regiment of the Third Army Corps, called for changes in recruit training and for stronger education for officers and sergeants, given that they are the skeleton of the army.
“A person must understand that they are trained to fight, and be ready to do it. While the commanders must have leadership skills … and then people will not be going AWOL in such numbers,” he said.
Deadly drones
The country says Russia is sustaining monthly losses of about 35,000 men, most thanks to Ukrainian drones. That capability needs to be boosted to prevent another Russian attack.
Ukraine has built a drone market, an unmanned fleet, missiles, electronic warfare systems, munitions and interceptors, Fedorov said. “But it is impossible to fight with new technologies while relying on an old organizational structure.”
In 2025, the Ministry of Defense contracted 4.5 million FPV drones and spent more than 110 billion hryvnia (€2.1 billion) on drone-related procurement, three times more than the year before.
“In drones, electronic warfare, munitions and strike systems, production is already measured in hundreds and thousands of units. At this stage, the key task is batch-to-batch stability and quality control, ensuring that production lines operate without interruptions or degradation in performance,” said Fedirko.
Ukraine is also developing its own missiles; if it has enough it could threaten Russia’s refineries, infrastructure and military targets with devastating strikes if Moscow attacks again.
Earlier promises by Ukraine’s Fire Point defense company — to produce about 200 Flamingo FP-5 missiles a month, each with a 1,150 kilogram warhead and a 3,000-kilometer range — haven’t panned out, although some have been used to hit Russian targets.
But Ukraine has other cruise missiles and long-range drones that could hit targets deep inside Russia. It is also working on a tactical ballistic missile with a 500-km range carrying a 200 kg warhead together with the U.K.
All of that requires a robust defense industry and healthy public finances.
Last year, Ukrainian defense companies had the capacity to produce about $35 billion worth of kit, but Kyiv’s cash-strapped government was only able to issue contracts for about $12 billion, said Fedirko.
“Up to 60 percent of capacity remains underutilized. Without long-term contracts, predictable financing, protected production sites, automation where feasible, and a domestic testing base, serial production cannot be sustained,” he said.
As well as equipping its own forces, Ukraine is hoping to export weapons, something current wartime rules make difficult.
The EU’s new defense spending initiatives, like the €150 billion SAFE loans-for-weapons program, are open to Ukrainian industries. The bloc is also planning to issue Ukraine a €90 billion loan, two-thirds of which will go for defense.
Legally binding security agreements with the United States and European states, as well as the potential presence of a “coalition of the willing” multinational force, are big issues in ongoing peace talks.
“However, they are largely seen as complementary to Ukraine’s own army rather than a substitute for them,” Getmanchuk said.
For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that means building up Ukraine’s own defense capabilities to deter Russia.
“With such a neighbor, Ukrainians must be as effective masters of the defense of their state, so that Ukraine is always independent and free from Russia.”