Diane Francis
February 5, 2026
What is underway with Russia is not a peace process but a slow-motion humanitarian catastrophe. Donald Trump choreographs trilateral meetings while Vladimir Putin demolishes Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilians. Putin plays with Trump, who recently asked him to hold off bombing for a while. Putin agreed then reneged, unleashing massive strikes on residences, infrastructure, a maternity hospital, a bus carrying miners, and a passenger train. When asked how he felt about Putin’s treachery, Trump said he was “unsurprised”. Shortly after, the Kremlin announced there would be no “breakthrough” at the next round of talks in Abu Dhabi. And so the diplomatic dance continues: Ukraine is battered, Washington and Brussels do nothing, and Putin plays for time.
The failure to stop this war is debated to death, but has nothing to do with “sticking points,” casualties, “security guarantees,” or concessions. Putin is not interested in stopping or negotiating. He has no interest in business-related win-win business deals with Trump, either. He does not care about his soldiers. He wants to destroy Ukraine, then Europe, and America. Every decision he makes, or promise he breaks, is designed to stall, enrage, weaken, or break his foes. He’s like the “mugger” in the alley, only with a machine gun, not a pocket knife, who wants your wallet and your life, nothing less. He is not willing to sign a ceasefire, a security guarantee, keep a promise, or honor a joint venture resources deal to develop oil in the Arctic with Americans.
Putin is a sociopath who projects power with his palaces, gilt-lined offices, and goose-stepping guards. But instead of emphasizing and demonizing this, the world’s media spills ink insisting that Trump — not Putin or Europe or Russia — is the problem. Some even claim, without evidence, that Putin controls Trump or that late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein was in cahoots with Putin to control Trump, tycoons, and Western leaders to suborn the geopolitical agenda. Such Kremlin-fed disinformation is designed to distract.
Putin’s war could end if Ukraine’s allies got their acts together. Russia’s economy is smaller than New York City’s, is slowly going bust, and can be brought to a halt if the allies do a few things: Pound its army and infrastructure with long-range missiles, impound shadow fleet oil tankers around the world that deliver its oil, and ban all Russians from travel. But none of these happen because the impediment to ending this genocidal war is not Russia. It is Europe. Many of its politicians, notably German, have been compromised. Its leadership is splintered and has been infiltrated for decades by Kremlin operatives. The prestigious Munich Security Conference and many “think” tanks take money from Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs. They have preached for years about the wisdom of “East-West Rapprochement,” and ignored the threat.
The recent blistering speech about Europe by Zelensky in Davos laid out the truth and the path to peace. “The backstop of Trump is needed” because security guarantees won’t work without the United States, then he stated bluntly: “Europe should not be a salad of small and middle powers,
but a united force. Europe loves to discuss the future but avoids taking action today, action that defines what kind of future we will have.”
Europe is to blame for this mess. It relied on American protection post-war and had to be hectored by Trump into finally pulling its weight. It still has no armies. This year, the European Union refused to give Ukraine the hundreds of billions in Russian assets that were frozen after the 2022 invasion. The reason? The legal sanctity of assets had to be preserved for the protection of the Euro and European financial institutions. (The real reason? A seizure would have resulted in a flight of capital from Europe’s banks, where most of the world’s dirty money is hidden and laundered.)
This turned morality on its head. The result is a continent – richer than China and powerful – that will go down in history as aiding and abetting the greatest security crisis against itself since the Second World War.
Europe is why Putin won’t stop. Its nations behave like frightened bystanders who are next in line for assault. Therefore, why would Putin stop if he’s allowed to rape and pillage and invade? Why would he capitulate, give up Donbas, promise not to blow up a nuclear reactor, or stop killing Ukrainians if there won’t be any serious consequences? Why should Putin de-escalate or stop when the West is not bombing Russia or obliterating its exports abroad?
Thus, Putin degrades, derails, and avoids peace talks simply because he has “permission” to do so from an impotent Europe. Russia sabotages the peace process by skirting its protocols. Before the last meeting, Kremlin fixer Kirill Dmitriev flew to Miami for secret discussions with Americans, even though no talks were to be held without Ukraine present. Recently, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced security guarantees had been worked out that would include French and British troops in Ukraine, backed by the United States. But the Kremlin instantly rejected the idea, and Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov claimed that “no one agreed on this with the Russian side.”
The only surefire way to stop Russia is to demolish its oil income. Ukrainians have been destroying Russian oil facilities, and Moscow’s oil income is down 25%. But America hasn’t unleashed draconian sanctions on Russian oil customers that were passed last year by Congress. And Europe just signed a free trade deal with India, allowing it to continue to buy, refine, and re-export Russian oil for sale in Europe. “They are financing the war against themselves,” pointed out U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The calculus for Putin is that stopping the war is riskier than continuing it, wrote Russian opposition figure Garry Kasparov. The “war virus” keeps the system alive. Putin cannot afford defeat, and in his worldview, even a ceasefire looks like defeat. That makes meaningful peace talks impossible, he said. Worse, Putin knows that playing for time puts him onside. The longer he holds out, the more likely the NATO alliance will collapse along with support for Ukraine, or Trump will force Ukraine to accept a terrible peace that leaves it unsustainable.
However, one expert suggests that Putin’s delay tactics may backfire if Trump fails to keep control over Congress in the midterm elections. If that happens, Trump’s generous terms now offered to Moscow may vanish if Congress flips.
All of which leaves Zelensky with two options, say sources. Stick with the American negotiation effort even if it means accepting a territorial compromise in return for peace and joining the European Union. Alternatively, fortify Ukraine’s army and continue to wear down Russia with its drone and digital supremacy. Fortunately, time is not fully on Putin’s side either. Former U.S. envoy Kurt Volker notes that Russia’s global position is weakening fast, and it may opt for a deal. Its Syrian ally is gone, as are Iran and Venezuela, and China’s economic deal with America is Putin’s worst nightmare.
The only constant during this upheaval is that Ukrainians remain resolved and resourceful. A poll this week suggested 52% of Ukrainians oppose conceding Donbas to Russia, and 65% are prepared to endure the war as long as it takes. The tragedy for these incredible people is that too many of their allies are cowards or completely missing in action.
Diane Francis is an expert on Canada, the United States, Canada-US relations, Silicon Valley, future technology, geopolitics, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Putin, energy, business, and white-collar crime. Always provocative, her direct and forceful writing has established her international reputation in covering the personalities, trends, and financial backstories that affect companies, individuals, governments and societies. Her popular twitter feed on tech and corruption has more than 240,000 followers around the world. An award-winning columnist, bestselling author, investigative journalist, speaker, and television commentator, she is Editor-at-Large at Canada’s National Post and a columnist for American Interest, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert, and Kyiv Post. . In 1991, Francis became Editor of Canada’s Financial Post, the first woman editor of a national daily newspaper in Canada, a position she held until the paper was sold in 1998. She is the author of ten books, including Merger of the Century: Why Canada and America Should Become One Country (2013, featured in a cover story in Foreign Policy), Who Owns Canada Now?: Old Money, New Money and the Future of Canadian Business (2008), and Immigration: The Economic Case (2002).