Nico Lange
Oct 3, 2025
CEPA
From Madrid to Paris to Berlin to Warsaw, the leaves are changing to a glorious kaleidoscope of gold, orange, and red. Families walk the streets, enjoying cafes accompanied by laughing children under the autumn sun.
In Kostyantynivka, in eastern Ukraine, the leaves also glow in vivid colors. But the streets are empty and the predominant sound is Russian artillery. With Vladimir Putin’s troops slowly surrounding the city, only a few of its 67,000 inhabitants remain. Those who have stayed are older, like Grandma Ljuba, who stubbornly refuses to leave. In a note to one of her daughters in Germany, she wrote: “The leaves are as colorful as ever, but the children have all left. Can Europe still hear us calling?”
This question strikes at the heart. Putin’s war is not a distant conflict in faraway Donbas. It is a war Russia has waged and continues to wage on all of Europe — on our security, our freedom, and our future. Look no further than Poland, where Russian drones breached a NATO member’s airspace, or Estonia, where three Russian war planes crossed infringed its territory, or Sweden, where Russia launched attacks on its infrastructure, or in Germany, where Russian agents plotted to assassinate the CEO of defense giant Rheinmetall. That’s not to mention a clear — if as yet unattributed — campaign of airspace incursion against Denmark.
Putin is conducting the largest and bloodiest war in Europe since 1945. His goal is to fundamentally change the European order with a Russia that has no geographical, political, or legal borders. He imagines a Europe without NATO, without the EU, without American security guarantees. A Europe that Moscow dominates, extorts, and subjugates.
That Ukrainians continue to defend their homeland and stand up to the Kremlin’s tyranny is something Putin will never understand. This explains why he has fundamentally misjudged Ukraine — first in 2014 and then in 2022 when Ukraine successfully repulsed much of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
In fact, militarily, Putin has been largely unsuccessful. Russia’s advance on Kyiv in the early days of its invasion collapsed after 72 hours, and the subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensives near Kharkiv, Kherson, and in Crimea showed that Russia is vulnerable.
Putin misjudged Ukrainian resolve, but he also has placed a strategic bet on European weakness, fear, and indecision. He launched an information war against the West — feeding a powerful narrative that Russia is unstoppable. He believes a profoundly risk-averse Europe prefers its autumnal walks and cafes to standing up for its freedom.
More than three years into the war, the European strategy of giving Ukraine only enough aid to hold out “as long as necessary” is militarily inefficient, politically risky, and economically the
most expensive option. This approach prolongs the war at the expense of both Ukraine and all of Europe, while giving the Kremlin more time to sow further division across the continent as it pushes and tests our eastern flank.
To those who say there should be a diplomatic solution, there is no compromise to be had with Putin. There is nothing he has ever done that would ever indicate he would capitulate or bow to anything other than overwhelming force. The only solution is for Europe to defeat him. Our continent must finally and fully militarily equip Ukraine and take additional measures to put military, economic, and financial pressure on Russia. If Putin only respects and responds to power, Europe must respond in kind.
Given its vast military power and the importance of the transatlantic relationship, the United States must and will continue to play a key role in the war in Ukraine and in European security.
But we cannot afford to wait for Washington to decide what we will do, and when we will do it. There is no more time to waste. Putin is counting on Europe to waver. We must prove him wrong by undertaking a comprehensive plan to beat Moscow.
Militarily, we must work with Ukraine to immediately establish an integrated air defense system that networks airspace surveillance and systems, improves drone defense, protects civilians from rockets and cruise missiles, and leverages the valuable frontline experience of the Ukrainians to protect NATO’s eastern flank while simultaneously improving Kyiv’s defenses. This means using NATO air defense systems to provide a protective umbrella over Western Ukraine.
At the same time, Europe needs to swiftly provide long-range weapons to Ukraine so it can target Russian command centers, ammunition depots, airfields, and drone factories deep in the Russian hinterland. This will give Ukraine important military advantages while also meeting European security interests.
Moreover, Europe should launch an emergency €10bn ($12bn) program to support the Ukrainian arms industry, stabilize its budget with €50bn in macro-financial aid, and systematically build up Ukraine’s future armed forces with a multi-year, multi-billion-euro program. This would be financed by confiscated Russian assets.
Europe must further prepare its military presence in Ukraine using the EU’s Article 42, which would also be feasible for a German mandate, and open to partners such as the UK, Turkey, Japan, or Australia. The recently agreed Multinational Force – Ukraine (MNF–U) headquarters is being established in Kyiv, is being led by a British two-star officer answerable to three-star officers in London and Paris, an unmistakable signal of pan-European determination and a useful template for the inclusion of non-EU partners.
Economically, we must stop the money that funds Moscow’s war machine. Europe must abruptly and finally end all energy and raw material imports from Russia — no oil, no gas, no liquefied natural gas, no uranium, or titanium, not even through third countries like India. Every euro spent on Russian energy and raw materials prolongs the war.
Another immediately feasible step is to completely stop the so-called shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea. Old tankers that circumvent sanctions must no longer be allowed to sail in the Baltic Sea for environmental and safety reasons, and to shut down the flow of further monies to the Kremlin’s coffers.
Building on the positive steps taken in EU sanctions packages 18 and 19, existing sanctions must be further tightened and consistently enforced, including against third countries that help Russia circumvent them. These states should finally face tangible economic and political consequences. This is another means of reducing the Kremlin’s income.
To secure its own ability to act, the EU must not allow individual member states to continue blocking decisions in an existential situation. Hungary must be temporarily stripped of its voting rights in the Council of the European Union with immediate effect.
Europe should no longer serve as a leisure or sanctuary destination for Russians. Until the war concludes, no new Schengen visas should be issued to Russian citizens, and those with existing visas should gradually be withdrawn, starting with diplomatic passports and visas for officials, oligarchs, and their children.
Lastly, Europe must directly address the Russian people. We must tell them that the war machine that has caused over one million Russian casualties, including 250,000 dead, can end, and that a peaceful and prosperous future with Russia and for Russia is possible — but only when Russia loses its war of imperial conquest.
This European roadmap is realistic and can be implemented immediately. We should finally abandon the illusion that time is on our side. Europe cannot defeat Putin with strongly worded condemnations, stilted political communication, and bureaucratic policy management. Every month we hesitate costs human lives, destroys infrastructure, and weakens Europe’s credibility.
If we act now, we can turn the situation around, and we can do it before the end of this year. If we act boldly and quickly, we can lay the foundation for a just and lasting peace.
In that case, Grandma Lyuba from Kostyantynivka and her friends could see her children and grandchildren return, life and hope return to her city, and growth, innovation, creativity, and prosperity replace brute force and mindless destruction.
That is the free Europe we want — and that we can win now.
Nico Lange is a Senior Fellow at CEPA. This article is a summary of his speech at the opening of the 2025/2026 winter semester at the Swiss Institute for International Studies in Zurich. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Munich Security Conference and teaches at the Chair of Military History at the University of Potsdam and at the Hertie School of Governance. Lange served as Chief of Staff at the German Ministry of Defense from 2019-2022.