Russian MiG-31s violated Estonian airspace, drones swarmed Poland and Romania, and Lavrov dismissed Trump’s land swap – while EU trumpets a 19th sanctions package. The message from Moscow: escalation pays
Michael Bociurkiw
Sep 19, 2025
Three Russian fighter jets flew into Estonian airspace on Friday in what would appear to be the third attempt by the Kremlin this month to test NATO’s eastern border. The MiG-31 aircraft — heavy interceptors capable of carrying Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile — entered via the Gulf of Finland. The jets circled for about 12 minutes and NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel them. The incursion comes after Russia last week also sent drones into Poland and Romania, two other frontline NATO members. “The Russians have been flying this exact airspace for decades. It’s difficult to see how this wasn’t intentional,” a U.S. official told POLITICO. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart said “this is yet another example of reckless Russian behaviour and NATO’s ability to respond.” EU foreign policy chief and former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas described the incursion as “an extremely dangerous provocation.” Estonia said it had summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires in Tallinn. “Russia has violated Estonian airspace four times already this year, which is unacceptable in itself, but today’s violation, during which three fighter jets entered our airspace, is unprecedentedly brutal,” Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said. “Russia’s ever-increasing testing of borders and aggression must be responded to by rapidly strengthening political and economic pressure.” Earlier this month, Poland reported more than a dozen drones crossed its border overnight, with some heading toward the strategic hub of Rzeszów. Polish forces, backed by NATO allies, shot down several drones and later invoked NATO’s Article 4, which calls for the alliance to hold consultations. Warsaw called the incident a deliberate Russian provocation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that territorial exchanges will not “stop” Russia’s war in Ukraine, in contradiction to US President Donald Trump’s recent statements that peace between Russia and Ukraine will require “land swaps.” Lavrov also asserted that attempts to “entice” Putin with the restoration of US-Russian trade will also not end Russia’s war. Lavrov claimed that Russia would view any European forces deployed to postwar Ukraine as “legitimate military targets.” Lavrov’s statements follow similar statements from other high-ranking Kremlin officials in recent weeks, rejecting post-war Western security guarantees for Ukraine.
The European Union announced a fresh package of sanctions on Friday meant to hit Russia’s economy and make it more difficult for the country to fund its war in Ukraine, with plans to curb its energy trade and punish financial service companies. With the new package — the bloc’s 19th — Europe’s leaders are trying to ramp up pressure on President Vladimir Putin of Russia. But they are also sending a signal to the White House after President Trump has in recent days called on European nations to stop buying oil from Russia. “It is time to turn off the tap,” bloc chief Ursula von der Leyen said. “Our sanctions are an effective tool of economic pressure, and we will keep using them until Russia comes to the negotiating table.” The package includes a plan to
phase out Russian liquefied natural gas purchases by the start of 2027, a year earlier than previously planned. It also includes provisions meant to pressure companies from China and other nations to stop doing business with Russia. For the first time, it will hit cryptocurrency platforms that enable transactions with Russia. The sanctions would also add more ships to the European Union’s blacklist. With those additions, the bloc would have sanctions on 560 vessels that are part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, a force of often-dilapidated ships with murky ownership structures that have helped the nation to get around Western limits and continue to profit from oil sales. The latest package of sanctions will need to gain approval from political leaders across the 27-nation bloc, which could happen as soon as next month. Because the sanctions were negotiated extensively before their announcement, some version of the proposal is likely to eventually be adopted.
My Hot Take Analysis
Russia’s latest provocation – three MiG-31 fighter jets brazenly violating Estonian airspace – isn’t an accident. It’s the Kremlin’s third attempt this month to probe NATO’s eastern flank, following recent drone incursions into Poland and Romania. Orders for such a high-stakes maneuver almost certainly came from the very top—perhaps even Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
Yes, NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel the incursion, but “scrambling” is hardly a strategy. The Baltic states—tiny in size and, in Estonia’s case, without a real air force of their own – are heavily reliant on NATO’s umbrella. This episode lays bare how fragile that protection looks when repeatedly tested.
Meanwhile, Brussels just rolled out its 19th sanctions package since Russia’s full-scale invasion – this time targeting LNG, a long-awaited move. But officials told Politico that the most effective measures would come only if Washington also adopted hard-hitting economic restrictions and stronger enforcement.
But here’s the bitter truth: if the EU had mustered the will to launch 19 packages from day one, Ukraine and Europe might not be facing this perilous moment.
Bottom line: Putin is testing NATO’s resolve and President Trump’s willingness to backstop Europe. NATO can’t afford to keep treating these incursions as routine – because to Moscow, every unpunished violation is a green light to push further.