Ukraine has achieved a breakthrough in its domestic missile program. A new Ukrainian ballistic missile has completed a combat test, striking a Russian command post nearly 300 kilometers from the launch site, military analyst and director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies Valentyn Badrak revealed.
Vlad Litnarovych
June 10, 2025
United24 Media
The missile’s development began in May 2022, with a successful test already conducted in the summer of 2024. According to Badrak, the system is now entering serial production, Badrak stated in a recent interview with Ukrainian news outlet Ukrinform on June 10. “I don’t know how many missiles we can expect per month or year—I think production will scale up very significantly,” he said. He added that the missile carries a warhead weighing over 400 kilograms, which he called “a very solid result.”
Precision matters
Secrecy shrouds the project, but based on previously leaked information and open-source analysis, experts are beginning to form a clearer picture of its capabilities.
With a 300-kilometer range and a heavy warhead, the missile marks a leap forward for Ukraine’s ability to strike targets deep behind Russian lines—potentially reducing Russia’s capacity for long-term warfare. “This missile is clearly bigger than the ATACMS we currently have,” Badrak noted, referring to the American-made Army Tactical Missile System. “And most importantly—it has learned how to strike with precision.”
Operational impact and room to grow
Aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap emphasized that the missile’s effectiveness lies in its blend of range, payload, and precision. “A 400-kilogram warhead is powerful for a missile of this class,” he said. Kryvolap explained that future variants could trade warhead mass for extended range by increasing fuel capacity and modifying the engine. “A missile like this is at the operational-tactical level—it’s designed to destroy logistics hubs, command centers, and ammunition depots.”
While a 300-kilometer range is currently feasible, Kryvolap believes the missile’s potential hasn’t yet peaked. “Under international agreements, 300 kilometers is the limit for export, but for domestic use, it should be extended to 500 kilometers,” he said. “Maybe they haven’t achieved that yet—but they will.”
Breaking through tech barriers
One of the biggest achievements, according to Ivan Kyrychevskyi, a defense analyst at Defense Express, is the missile’s accuracy. “People often ask why we didn’t just repurpose old Pivdenmash missiles,” he said, referring to the Soviet-era manufacturer. “The answer is—they weren’t accurate enough. To match something like Russia’s Iskander, you need a completely different class of electronics.”
Ukraine’s defense industry has struggled with military-grade electronics in the past, limiting its ability to produce sophisticated guided systems like France’s Medium-Range Missile (MMP), a new-generation surface-attack missile system designed for the French Army or Israel’s Spike. The MMP development program was initiated by MBDA Systems in 2009, to replace France’s Milan and HOT wire-guided, anti-tank missiles.
But Kyrychevskyi sees the recent successful strike as a sign that those problems are being solved. “If the missile hit its target, it means we’ve cracked the electronics.”
Production timeline and real-world stress tests
Building a modern, high-precision weapon from scratch typically takes at least 12 months; surface-to-air systems can take up to two years. But Kyrychevskyi stresses that Ukraine isn’t starting from zero. “There won’t be any ribbon-cutting ceremonies. Our missile industry has already performed a miracle.”
He cited the example of the so-called “Long Neptune”—an extended-range version of Ukraine’s indigenous cruise missile—developed and deployed despite repeated Russian strikes on production sites. “The same miracle is happening now with the ballistic program,” he said. “Only 10 countries produce their own ballistic missiles. We’re on track to become the 11th.”
Tactical usage and strategic potential
The new missile is likely to be launched from mobile platforms positioned 40–50 kilometers from the front line. Its range puts targets deep inside Russian territory—up to 230–240 kilometers beyond the border—within reach.
Kryvolap estimates that taking out a Shahed drone production facility would require four to five missiles of this class.
But a larger strategic impact, he notes, would require a missile with a 700-kilometer range and a 500-kilogram warhead—enough to strike 80% of Russia’s military-industrial complex. “That would make rearming impossible,” he said. “But even this missile, just by existing, instills fear.”
Kyrychevskyi agrees: “Russia fired more than 10,000 missiles at us in the last two years, and over 800 Iskanders between April and September 2022 alone. But they still couldn’t knock out our energy or transport infrastructure. So no, we won’t achieve strategic effect with just a few dozen missiles. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t strike back.”
Talking about the possibility of targeting the Russian leadership inside the bunkers, the expert stated: “Even if this missile had a bunker-buster warhead, it wouldn’t be enough to hit that one bunker with Putin inside.” “For that, you’d need a nuclear bomb—and nothing else,” Kyrychevskyi said.
Can Russian air defenses stop it?
Kryvolap is skeptical of Russia’s ability to intercept ballistic missiles. “The S-300 and S-400 systems only have about a 30% chance of hitting a ballistic target,” he explained. “If you launch two missiles at once, they won’t shoot it down.” This missile likely weighs two to three tons in total, far heavier than the 160-kilogram warheads of the ATACMS Block IA missiles supplied by the US. “At some stages, it reaches near-hypersonic speed. That makes interception extremely difficult for Russian air defenses,” Kryvolap said. “The S-300 and S-400 are effective against cruise missiles, not ballistics. To hit a ballistic missile, your interceptor must strike it directly—and Russia doesn’t have that level of guidance.”
He added that Russia’s S-500 program has yet to prove itself: “Some of those systems have already been destroyed in Crimea.”
Why doesn’t it have a name?
Unlike other Ukrainian weapons with names like Liutyi, Trembita, or Marichka, this missile remains officially nameless. Kyrychevskyi explains that previous labels like “Sapsan” or “Hrim-2” were largely marketing ploys for export to Saudi Arabia. “But today, there’s no need for flashy branding,” he said. “This is a fundamentally new weapon. It’s fine if it still has only a technical designation. Look at Russia—they just call them ‘products’ with serial numbers.”
Many countries, like Israel and Taiwan, keep their missile arsenals under tight wraps to preserve strategic ambiguity. “Taiwan’s hypersonic Hsiung Feng has been seen in public only twice in 15 years,” Kyrychevskyi said. “But it exists—and China knows it.”
Earlier, reports emerged that Ukraine successfully tested and deployed its new long-range missile, the “Long Neptune.” The missile, developed as part of Ukraine’s ongoing missile program, has a reported range of 1,000 kilometers, stated the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “The Long Neptune has undergone testing and successful combat deployment. A new Ukrainian missile, precise and effective,” Zelenskyy said.
Reports indicate that the Long Neptune is an extended-range modification of the domestically produced Neptune cruise missile, originally designed for targeting naval assets. The missile’s adaptation for long-range strikes on land targets marks a significant advancement in Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
Vlad Litnarovych was born in Kyiv, Vlad graduated from National Pedagogical University with MA in political science. Since joining the UNITED24 Media he focuses on highlighting various aspects of life in Ukraine under constant Russian attacks.