Gen. Christopher Cavoli will tell Congress today that the US and NATO “need to prepare” to meet the long-term threat Russia poses. Kyiv Post gets a preview of the general’s testimony.
by Alex Raufoglu
April 8, 2025
Kyiv Post
The top US commander in Europe and NATO plans to deliver a stark warning to the Congress today. In his assessment, all signs indicate that Russia will continue to threaten US security and economic interests “well into the future” and therefore, the United States and NATO need to prepare to meet this threat.
Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, who heads up European Command (EUCOM) and is also NATO’s supreme allied commander on the continent, is scheduled to testify before the House Armed Services Committee in an April 8 hearing. He will appear alongside Katherine Thompson, who is currently performing the duties of Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs.
Gen. Cavoli will make the case about the Russian threat by highlighting Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine, destabilization campaign against the West, societal mobilization for war, and growing strategic partnerships with America’s adversaries, such as Iran, China and DPRK – all of which together “seek to undermine US and Allied advantages and challenge our vital interests at home and abroad,” according to the unclassified version of prepared congressional testimony obtained by Kyiv Post.
In his prepared remarks, the four-star general will also lay out before lawmakers EUCOM’s efforts in helping to prepare the Alliance by increasing European ownership of European security, prioritizing warfighting, and building readiness to execute the defense plans.
All of this, in his opinion, requires US leadership, continued investment in advanced capabilities, and a sustainable transition to an Allied-led defense in Europe. “The global threats we face today are significant, perhaps never more so than since the end of the Cold War,” the general will testify.
As for Russia’s war in Ukraine, Cavoli is planning to draw a clear picture about the scale of violence on the battlefields in Donetsk, Kursk, and Bakhmut, which he believes demonstrates Russia’s willingness to employ brutal means in pursuit of its goals.
The top commander will also warn lawmakers that Russia has replaced its extensive battlefield losses in Ukraine, and did it faster than anticipated. “In fact, the Russian army, which has borne the brunt of combat, is today larger than it was at the beginning of the war – despite suffering an estimated 790,000 casualties,” he will say.
According to his testimony, Russian forces on the front lines of Ukraine are now at over 600,000, the highest level over the course of the war and almost double the size of the initial 2022 invasion force. In December 2024, Moscow ordered the military to increase its strength to 1.5 million active service members and is recruiting approximately 30,000 troops per month.
In his prepared statement, Cavoli also sounds the alarm that Russia is not just reconstituting service members, but is also replacing combat vehicles and munitions at an unprecedented pace. Russian ground forces in Ukraine have lost an estimated 3,000 tanks, 9,000 armored vehicles, 13,000 artillery systems, and over 400 air defense systems in the past year – but is on pace to replace them all. “Russia has expanded its industrial production, opened new manufacturing facilities, and converted commercial production lines for military purposes,” Cavoli notes. “As a result, the Russian defense industrial base is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armored vehicles, and 200 Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles this year. Additionally, we anticipate Russia to produce 250,000 artillery shells per month, which puts it on track to build a stockpile three times greater than the United States and Europe combined.”
Cavoli will also tell the Committee that while the war in Ukraine has been Russia’s focus and the most visible sign of its great power ambitions, the Kremlin’s strategic objectives are centered on attaining unencumbered influence in its “near abroad” (states previously in the Soviet orbit) and greater international power while diminishing the leadership and influence of the US.
“Following the old Soviet playbook, Russia is engaging in a calculated destabilization campaign through cyberattacks on infrastructure, public sabotage, targeted violence, weaponized migration, election interference, and information operations. These activities have serious consequences for the freedoms and prosperity we enjoy in the United States,” the general will testify.
According to him, Russia is exploiting the volatility in high-risk regions of Europe to expand its influence at the expense of the US. “In Georgia, the pro-Russian Georgia Dream party has aligned Tbilisi closer to Moscow. In Moldova, Russian influence in the November 2024 presidential election intensified as Moscow engaged in fraudulent vote-buying, election related cyberattacks, and false bomb threats against polling stations, as well as employing trained agitators to incite disorder.”
Cavoli will also talk about how Russia’s increasing collusion with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), North Korea (DPRK), and Iran serves as a force multiplier for Moscow’s geopolitical goals. The group shares Russia’s vision of a multipolar world and is providing an economic lifeline to Moscow.
For instance, according to him, to avoid Western sanctions, the CCP and Russia are increasing the use of national currencies to conduct trade outside of SWIFT, using non-traditional finance options for business transactions, and employing financial techniques to bypass secondary sanctions. Half of Russia’s energy exports currently go to China, and Russia’s use of a “shadow fleet” allows it to circumvent the US and G7+ partners’ oil price cap policy.
The CCP also seeks to create opportunities in Europe to exert its global influence and fracture the West, the general will say.
Alex Raufoglu is Kyiv Post’s Chief Correspondent in Washington DC. He covers the US State Department, regularly traveling with US Secretary of State. Raufoglu has worked extensively in the South Caucasus and Black Sea regions for several international broadcast outlets, such as VoA, BBC, RFE/RL, etc. He holds an MA in Interactive Journalism from American University, Washington DC.