Western governments are still far from understanding the threat to European security from a full Russian-Ukrainian war which Putin threatened in his July long article about the so-called ‘historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians.’


August 11, 2021

Eurasia Diary

By Yunis Abdullayev


Western states do not want to let Ukraine into the European Union and NATO, said  Vadim Karasev, Ukrainian political expert.

Speaking to Ukraine 24 TV channel, Vadim Karasev said that European powers, especially Germany and France, do not have any intention to accelerate the membership of Ukraine in the European Union and NATO.

According to him, Germany and France are not ready to recognize Ukraine as a part of the West because of its military power. “They believe that in case Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, it will lead to the creation of Eastern European military power, even its dominance over Western Europe into alliance.”

“This changes all the balances, it is not in the interests of Germany, France and other Western European countries,” he added.

Further to clarifying Karasev’s opinion regarding the reasons why Western European states procrastinate the process on the membership of Ukraine in the EU and NATO, Eurasia Diary conducted an interview with Taras Kuzio, professor in the Department of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy, as well as the well-known researcher on post-Soviet studies.

– Mr Kuzio, Ukrainian political expert Vadim Karasev considered that France and Germany do not want to let Ukraine into the EU and NATO, as they have concerns over the possibility for Kyiv to be a future military power on the European continent. As an expert what can you say about this?

 – Karasev is a political technologist for the pro-Kremlin Opposition Platform-For Life party and therefore anything he says is highly biased and uninteresting. The reason why NATO and the EU are not willing to offer membership to Ukraine has nothing to do with what he says and is different for both organisations. Ukraine’s military is one of the biggest in Europe, but it is similar in size to Poland’s; Ukraine would not therefore dominate Eastern Europe militarily.

– Concerning the EU, Ukraine’s economy is in no condition to compete with countries which have undertaken more substantial reforms. Poland and Ukraine had similar GDP sizes in 1991 but today Poland’s GDP is three times larger than Ukraine’s. In addition, Ukraine faces a similar problem to Turkey in not being completely viewed as European because both countries lie on the edge of Europe. The EU’s Eastern Partnership offers integration to Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova but not membership.

 – Do you think that if Ukraine becomes a member of the NATO alliance, it will lead to the dominance of Eastern European military power over Western Europe?

 – No, I do not think the size of Ukraine’s military is the main issue preventing an offer from NATO to join. The real factor preventing an invitation to NATO membership is Germany and France’s opposition, two countries where there are many pro-Russian Putinverstehers (Putin-Understanders). A secondary factor is NATO’s concern at what would be Russia’s reaction.

 – Some experts believe that France and Germany ignore the importance of the protection of security, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine. What are the reasons for that? What further policy will Germany and France promote towards Ukraine?

 – Germany and France in particular, but also the US, are being duplicitous towards Ukraine and Georgia on NATO. On the one hand, NATO has said to Ukraine and Georgia at every summit since 2008 that both countries will be offered MAPs (Membership Action Plans). But on the other hand, NATO never says when this will take place. Both countries have lost patience with NATO’s duplicitous statements that sound more like fake news.

– The West is approaching Russian-inspired conflicts in Eurasia in the same way. They have never protested the Kremlin’s demand that Eurasia is Russia’s exclusive sphere of influence, they have never demanded that UN peacekeepers be used and always wanted the conflicts to be quickly resolved, even if this meant the agreement was based on Russian demands. The West has pressured Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine to accept Russian demands for ending their frozen conflicts. In the case of Karabakh, France and to a lesser extent the US adopted pro-Armenian positions.

– Western governments are still far from understanding the threat to European security from a full Russian-Ukrainian war which Putin threatened in his July long article about the so-called ‘ historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians.’  


The article was prepared with the financial support of the Media Development Agency of the Republic of Azerbaijan